Survey Estimates Indian GDP growth may 4.5% Deflation

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GDP growth forecast In May, the Reserve Bank Estimates GDP growth is expected to be in the negative digits for FY 2020-21.

Industry organization FICCI has projected a contraction of 4.5 percent in the country’s annual GDP growth for the financial year 2020-21. FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey states that it is significantly revising its earlier estimates due to the economic and health crisis created by the rapid spread of Kovid-19 worldwide. In January 2020 survey, the Industry Chamber had projected GDP growth to be 5.5 percent. The epidemic has severely affected economic activity since the lockdown was implemented in the country to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus. However, restrictions related to lockdown are gradually being relaxed.

Addressing the SBI Banking and Economics Conclave, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the gradual easing of sanctions indicates the Indian economy is on track.

However, according to Das, it is still uncertain how long the supply chain will be able to return to its former state fully and how long it would take for demand-related goods to return to normal.

In May, the Reserve Bank predicted GDP growth is expected to be in negative digits in FY 2020-21.

Releasing the details of the survey, FICCI stated that this economic survey was conducted in June. The study ranked the views of various leading economists in the industry, banking, and financial services sectors.

FICCI stated, “FICCI’s recent Economic Outlook survey forecasts an annual average GDP growth of (-) 4.5 percent in FY 2015-21”.

According to the survey, an average 14.2 percent contraction of GDP has been estimated in the first quarter of the current financial year.

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